Larry Chrzan
 
408 Strathmore Rd
Havertown, PA 19083
 
Phone: 484-410-9597
Email: larry@larrychrzan.com

 
 

Haverford Township/7th Ward Blog

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Haverford Rec Center - Indoor Recreation Facility Presentation info

From the presentation on the Indoor Recreation Facility, June 27, 2007 at Haverford High School, the following information was offered for review and questions by the architect (Martin Kimmel of Kimmel Bogrette and recreation consultant Ken Ballard of Ballard/King Associates.

The following describes the various pool options for the proposed facility:

Option A - Community recreation center with a large double court gymnasium, group exercise room, community pool, weight/cardiovascular area, track, community room (with kitchen), arts room, lobby/lounge/vending area, locker rooms and administrative area. Approximately 57,000 sq.ft.

Option B – Contains the same elements as Option A but includes a community pool and a 6 lane 25 yard competitive pool with a diving board. Approximately 67,000 sq.ft.

Option C – Contains the same elements as Option A but substitutes a 6 lane 25 yard competitive pool for the community pool. Approximately 57,000 sq.ft.

No PoolOption AOption BOption C
Cost ($M)812.615.412.6
Sq Ft (1000s)3659.569.559.5
Community Rooms3455
Annual Expenses ($M)1.8231.9891.761
Annual Revenue ($M)1.5591.6601.273
Difference ($M)-0.264-0.329-0.488
Recovery %86%83%72%

These were the numbers that I copied down from the presentation. They are slightly different from the previous projections offered in the initial report from the recreation consultant, found on the Haverford Parks and Rec website.

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3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info & links. What are your feelings on the consultants revenue projections as quoted? Thanks in advance for your reply.

July 3, 2007 5:20 PM  
Blogger Larry Chrzan said...

Thanks for your question and sorry it took me a while to respond.

I work with manufacturers. They talk about forecasts and often say, "The only thing you can be sure about forecasts is that they will be wrong." Having said that, thay all use forecasts to do planning.

The same things holds true here with the revenue projections from the consultant hired by Haverford Township for the recreation center. Ken Ballard of Ballard*King and Associates (website: http://www.ballardking.com/) was the consultant who did the work. On their website they say: "Ballard*King and Associates has completed well over 150 feasibility and planning studies for recreation facilities in the last eight years and has more than 25 facilities up and running across the United States. The vast majority of their projects are indoor municipal recreation center studies and they are considered to be one of the foremost authorities on public recreation facility planning in the United States."

They described that they have done some of these studies in this area, including Plymouth Meeting, South Jersey, and another one in NE Pennsylvania if I remember correctly. They also localized their study by benchmarking local recreation facilities.

A good question to ask them would be: How accurate have your projections been in our geographic area and other areas? What's the range of outcomes? Are we looking at +/- 5% or +/- 50%? This will provide a better assessment for judging the quality of their projections.

So, we can get some further information about the quality of these projections from historical information about the quality of their past projections.

In the end, a projection is just that - an informed guess about the future.

What I'm concerned about at this point is the process of using these projections in the decision-making process. What IS the process for making this decision? One thing that I would like to do as commissioner is make sure that there are established decision-making processes and criteria in place, including cost-benefit analysis and impact on both finances and community.

I'm also concerned that the township is about to make another big decision about something that will have long-term effects without the benefit of having a long-term strategic plan in place. It's an exciting time in Haverford Township with so many things brewing. All of this screams out for a comprehensive master plan.

July 8, 2007 11:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Larry. If you were a commissioner and the "cost/benefit" ratio was substantially negative over the course of five years, what would you suggest the township due in order to minimize the tax payers financial burden?

July 12, 2007 9:55 AM  

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